Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 218.121263 266.602766 327.204050 410.003831 522.593340 6.740698e+02 9.000549e+02
2025-05-18 161.127808 215.307829 291.987072 413.217025 609.964567 9.371635e+02 1.575486e+03
2025-05-25 127.478144 180.592415 262.327173 405.738558 672.172003 1.200678e+03 2.525310e+03
2025-06-01 105.182287 155.408654 237.603597 393.804151 717.470332 1.465523e+03 3.854193e+03
2025-06-08 89.395793 136.437190 217.219985 380.975475 753.075200 1.739717e+03 5.753004e+03
2025-06-15 84.091147 133.377869 223.079557 420.139364 925.097226 2.547524e+03 1.227238e+04
2025-06-22 75.830738 123.473902 213.740474 423.747413 1012.359678 3.219016e+03 2.229881e+04
2025-06-29 70.204385 117.293917 210.144994 439.165570 1145.059196 4.298608e+03 4.926505e+04
2025-07-06 63.887432 108.772176 199.930806 434.953385 1215.473488 5.256556e+03 1.021990e+05
2025-07-13 61.972164 108.447691 207.034518 478.759192 1493.433247 8.253293e+03 5.786600e+05
2025-07-20 59.766213 107.154898 211.670643 518.000304 1799.227911 1.300637e+04 1.508140e+07
2025-07-27 57.166916 104.633333 212.891895 547.902610 2104.121079 2.017176e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 53.893816 100.440067 209.792822 565.211881 2388.083327 3.100180e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 50.425714 95.378779 203.609587 570.256231 2621.471918 4.606155e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 46.732377 89.353445 193.835015 558.894933 2742.855542 6.264596e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 43.232537 83.372542 183.194142 540.776043 2802.033454 8.135290e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 40.091351 77.884643 173.039029 521.375780 2835.604631 1.040524e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 39.750113 78.906574 181.170402 580.876553 3683.497918 3.367989e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 37.810203 75.868238 177.112863 586.397952 4042.501681 7.147570e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 36.501606 74.223498 176.902626 610.065556 4697.164719 2.745480e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 34.575957 70.846053 170.888121 603.587884 4971.099840 8.443341e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 34.398540 71.846438 178.657091 671.378202 6646.181398 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 33.968530 72.146688 184.311697 732.878548 8692.362547 NaN NaN